Avula: The number of Virginians who want the COVID-19 vaccine isnt yet enough to reach herd immunity – WAVY.com

by: Brett Hall, Dean Mirshahi

RICHMOND, Va. (WAVY/WRIC) Of the Virginians who want the COVID-19 vaccine, more than half already have received their first dose.

However, even when all those who want a vaccine receive one, state vaccination coordinator Dr. Danny Avula believes an additional one million people will have to receive a shot for Virginia to achieve herd immunity.

Avula, appointed as Virginias vaccine coordinator in January, reiterated previous assessments in a press call Friday that vaccinating at least 75% of the states adult population which would be an estimated 5.1 million people is the expected benchmark for herd immunity.

As of Friday, 2.2 million Virginians have received at least one dose of the vaccine according to the Virginia Department of Health. Avula said 1.4 million people remain on the states pre-registration list.

While Avula is confident another half-a-million people will automatically sign up once the state further opens up vaccine eligibility, beyond that, things could get tricky.

For the 60 to 65% [population vaccinated] that will be easy to get. We are a little over halfway there, Avula said. For that additional 12% to get to herd immunity, thats going to be a lot of work.

As to why that is, Avula listed a variety of possible reasons, including a mix of lack of awareness, access and concerns over the vaccine.

Pre-registration is a deterrent for some folks, Avula said, explaining how some residents may be wary of providing personal informationwhen signing up. He also cited possible internet access issues and those who may not be tech-savvy.

In addition, he said national data shows that those living in rural areas where much of the political base identifies as Republican are reluctant to get the shots.

In response, the VDH is working on targeted efforts to expand outreach to vulnerable communities and people hesitant to register for the vaccine. This includes more flexibility for walk-ups and smaller satellite vaccination sites, and giving doctors with private practices and advocacy groups more vaccine supply.

Its really going to be the private providers, doctors and nurses that have relationships with their patients, who will be incredibly effective to help those on the fence, get off the fence and get vaccinated, Avula said.

Next week, Virginia expects 164,000 doses of the Moderna vaccine, 140,000 first doses and 112,000 second doses of the Pfizer vaccine and 49,000 of Johnson & Johnsons single-shot dose.

The shipment ofJohnson & Johnsonscoronavirus vaccine for next week is fewer than half of the doses expected. Despite that, Avula believes enough shots will be available to move all communities into Phase 1c of Virginias vaccination plan and still expects to meet President Joe Bidens goal of making all adults eligible for a vaccine by May 1.

A spokeswoman for the Virginia Department of Health provided information from Avula in an email Thursday indicating the states effort to expand vaccine eligibility may be held up without a larger J&J supply.

We dont expect it to prevent us from moving into 1C, the email read. If ourJ&Jsupply doesnt grow significantly from here, it may impact our ability to move to Phase 2, but not 1C.

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Avula: The number of Virginians who want the COVID-19 vaccine isnt yet enough to reach herd immunity - WAVY.com