As winter draws near, covid-19 threatens Europe once again – The Economist

Nov 5th 2021

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes covid-19, has a single objective: to survive by finding new hosts to infect. As cold weather in the northern hemisphere causes more people to stay indoors, and daily life gets closer to normalcy, the virus is once again threatening to run amok in Europe.

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On November 4th the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned that in the 53 countries of Europe and Central Asiatwo regions where the disease has so far claimed 1.4m lives, according to official figures, although our estimate of excess deaths suggests the figure is about 70% highercovid could yet kill another 500,000 people by February 1st. Cases are rising rapidly in much of the continent. In Germany daily infections surpassed their all-time high on November 4th; the Dutch government tightened restrictions in the same week in an attempt to suppress a rising number of cases.

The situation is worse in Eastern Europe. Cases in Romania are 15% above their peak of last year. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are also suffering: cases are up by 70% over the past month. Over the past 28 days the European Union has accounted for 21% of the global caseload, up from 9% two months ago.

Deaths from covid are now rising rapidly, too. Over the past 14 days 49,000 people have died from the virus across Europe, up by 59% from a month ago, and just one-third below the peak reached in January. About two-thirds of the deaths over the past fortnight have been in eastern Europe, where vaccination rates are much lower than in Western Europe. Thanks to higher vaccination rates, case-fatality rates in western Europe remain half their rate in January. Yet the concern among policymakers is that waning vaccine efficacy, particularly among the old, along with exponentially rising cases, will lead to more deaths this winter, unless booster shots can be given to the most vulnerable people.

Some countries remain relaxed. Even though deaths are at an eight-month high in Britain, its government says it does not need to implement its winter "Plan B"which will involve mask mandates and asking people to work from homebecause hospitals are still coping. Some would disagree with that judgment. The WHO reckons that if mask-wearing were to rise to 95% of the population across Europe and central Asia, up from about 50% now, it would save 188,000 lives by February 1st.

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As winter draws near, covid-19 threatens Europe once again - The Economist