After soaring for weeks, coronavirus cases have slowed in Baton Rouge area. But they’re still high. – The Advocate

Like the rest of Louisiana, the Baton Rouge region is coming down from a post-holiday peak for coronavirus, and a third surge that began in early November appears to be subsiding somewhat.

During that surge, 408 people in the region -- 156 of them in East Baton Rouge -- have died from the COVID-19 illness tied to the virus. Among the dead were Baton Rouge mayoral candidate and former state Rep. Steve Carter and Tangipahoa Parish fire service fixture, Amite Fire Chief Bruce Cutrer.

New cases, hospitalizations due to COVID-19 and test positivity rates have all been trending downward in the 12-parish region as the Christmas and New Year's holidays fall farther in the rearview mirror, state data show.

But health officials warned that the recent improvements over the past three weeks are relative to the worst surge in cases since the pandemic hit the state nearly a year ago. The virus is still much more prevalent that it was at earlier points in the year, they said.

The Louisiana Department of Health reported 1,874 more confirmed coronavirus cases and 50 more confirmed deaths in its noon update Thursday.

And plenty of uncertainty remains about how the state will weather the next few months as people try to become vaccinated while more contagious variants of the virus begin to appear in Louisiana.

On Thursday, the state Department of Health warned two more cases of the U.K. variant had been found in the Lake Charles and New Orleans areas. While the cases only bring the confirmed total in Louisiana to three, state health officials warned many more undetected cases were likely.

"You ever overcorrect on the road and have that super uneasy feeling when you get back on the road? You know, just because you're back on the road doesn't make you feel any better?" asked Dr. Catherine O'Neal, chief medical officer for Our Lady of the Lake Regional Medical Center and an infectious disease physician. "That's how people should feel."

"Where we are today should make people incredibly uncomfortable," O'Neal added. "I'm hopeful, but I'm very cautious, and I would hope that everybody would remain with the same caution that they have been. This is a very uneasy place to be now."

Still, there are some encouraging signs.

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New cases peaked around Jan. 8 to 12 and have been mostly headed downward for the rest of the month, state case trend data show. There was a one-day uptick through Wednesday after a big batch of tests were reported.

The seven-day average for new daily cases has fallen off more by than one-third in the Baton Rouge area between the highest point in January and Thursday. Some parishes, like Ascension, have seen even sharper drops, according to an analysis of raw case data.

Weekly positivity rates, which are a way to measure viral spread in the community, are also largely headed downward or stable.

East Baton Rouge Parish is below double-digits and hit 9% in the week ended Jan. 20, the lowest level since mid-December. Ten percent positivity or greater is considered a sign of uncontrolled spread.

St. James Parish government and the parish hospital have set up a call center and transportation services to streamline vaccinations for the c

In the Baton Rouge-area health region, hospitalizations due to COVID-19 have fallen off 19% since a peak of 243 people on Jan. 14. The number sat at 197 through Wednesday, according to Thursday's data.

The state health region doesn't include several Baton Rouge area parishes: Livingston, St. Helena, Tangipahoa, Assumption and St. James. But neighboring health regions that do include those parishes also have generally seen declines.

Susan Hassig, a Tulane University epidemiologist, said the January peak and subsequent fall off seem to correlate with the natural course of the virus after the surge of cases prompted by holiday gatherings primarily during Christmas.

"In terms of case count, we have finally made it through the holiday period of our discontent," she said.

The drop suggests that some of the unemployed are finding new jobs and that others have exhausted state benefits.

She and others don't think the decline in cases can be attributed to the state's vaccination effort, because not enough people have gotten both doses.

Out of 4.65 million people in Louisiana, 57,926 of them, or about 1.2%, have completed the two-dose regimen as of Thursday, state statistics show.

Hassig said she believes the effects of the vaccine will start to show up first when case numbers for those ages 70 and older start to drop and deviate from weekly case trends for other age groups that haven't been able to receive the vaccine.

Young adults and those in their 30s remain the age groups with the greatest number of new cases week to week. But almost all age groups have tracked one another through the pandemic's surges and troughs.

The exception has been the youngest children, who remain at low levels, state data show.

While cases are down from the peak, they are still well above the low points of the pandemic. Hassig described how the baseline in cases seems to be stair-stepping upward after each surge in cases comes to an end. She said she worried about the risk of another surge in cases and whether people would continue to avoid large gatherings, especially those related to the coming Mardi Gras holiday.

Also, a few parishes in the Baton Rouge area, like Assumption Parish, are still seeing rising positivity rates and daily new cases.

The small, rural parish south of East Baton Rouge saw the positivity rate rise by more than a quarter week-to-week to 15.3%. An Advocate analysis shows per-capita daily case trends are nearly double the regional average and well above the state average.

"It's widespread here," said John Boudreaux, the parish homeland security director. The parish is currently trying to boost vaccinations.

Hassig said it is her hope that greater vaccinations and other efforts to keep spread low will accumulate enough through the springtime to squelch another surge.

"But that's going to take people behaving right and taking the vaccine," she said.

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After soaring for weeks, coronavirus cases have slowed in Baton Rouge area. But they're still high. - The Advocate