A summer surge of COVID infections is hitting the North Bay. Heres why an expert calls it troubling – The Santa Rosa Press Democrat

The North Bay is experiencing a summer surge in COVID-19 infections, in part driven by highly contagious FLiRT subvariant and low vaccination rates, local health experts on Wednesday said.

Dr. Tanya Phares, Sonoma Countys health officer, said the current summer wave of COVID-19 infections, though a familiar trend during the pandemic, has surpassed that of the previous year.

The current summer wave has surpassed that of 2023 but not 2022, Phares said. Thats a national trend but it looks like we see that in Sonoma County, too.

This years summer wave appears to be happening sooner than last year, according to the latest available local wastewater surveillance data for SARS-CoV-2, that causes COVID-19 illness.

On June 27, the composite level of COVID-19 detected in Santa Rosa, Petaluma and Windsor wastewater sites was 56% of the maximum historic level during the pandemic.

On the same date last summer, it was 8 percent. For Santa Rosa alone the level on June 27 was 61 this summer and 8% on that date last summer.

Local wastewater detection of COVID-19 has been climbing since late April. Phares said its unclear if COVID-19 infections are simply peaking earlier this summer or if rates will continue to climb.

Its possible that its peaked earlier or that it's going to keep going up, but it's very hard to predict what it's going to do, Phares said. We've seen different variants with each peak over time so we're dealing with something different each time.

Phares said national trends, as well as those in Europe, suggest continued spread of the so called FLiRT subvariants, which are descendants of the omicron variant. Nationally, the dominant FLiRT subvariant is KP.3, and KP.3.1.1 is expected to grow fairly quickly in the United States and Europe, she said.

Phares said the current surge is troubling given low vaccination rates in the county.

The overall vaccination rate the share of the population that is up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccinations is 23%. Even the age-group that is most vulnerable, those 65 and older, has a vaccination rate of just under 56%.

The overall up-to-date vaccination rate in Napa County is nearly 21%; and 51% for those 65 and older.

Dr. Gary Green, an infectious disease expert at Sutter Santa Rosa Regional Hospital, said vaccine and pandemic fatigue is likely partly behind the current summer surge and low vaccination rates.

Green said Sutter is experiencing a summer ambulatory surge in cases, meaning most of the COVID-19 patients are being seen as outpatients.

He noted that there has also been a slight uptick in COVID-19 hospitalizations and emergency visits, but I wouldnt call that a surge.

Green said he suspects the bump is partly due to increased summer travel, along with waning immunity and people simply taking fewer precautions.

Summer heat waves across the country might also be driving more people indoors and in close contact, he said.

I think the heat wave kind of brought everyone indoors, into the malls, indoor shopping because it just too hot, he said. I think that crowding is going to propagate viral transmission.

Green said that currently 30% of all nasal swabs done in outpatient clinics are turning up positive. For comparison purposes, he said the start of flu season is usually declared when swab positivity rates hit 10%.

Green said in the emergency department, 16% of all COVID-19 swabs are coming up positive.

Phares said COVID-19 deaths have remained low but stable, and a particular threat for the most vulnerable groups, including frail seniors, people with chronic illnesses and compromised immune systems.

Since the beginning of the year, there have been 39 COVID-19 deaths, she said, which amounts to fewer than 10 a month.

The message is really we have to be cautious and we should make an effort to increase vaccination rates to protect ourselves, as well as to limit the spread of the disease and keep it from mutating, she said.

You can reach Staff Writer Martin Espinoza at 707-521-5213 or martin.espinoza@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @pressreno.

Excerpt from:

A summer surge of COVID infections is hitting the North Bay. Heres why an expert calls it troubling - The Santa Rosa Press Democrat