On the hunt for a Covid-19 vaccine – Vantage

As companies and institutions around the world race to develop a vaccine against the strain of coronavirus sweeping around the world, Cepi has come forward with an estimate of how much money it might take to cross the finish line: $2bn.

The not-for-profit foundation, whose full name is the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, wants funds for an extensive research programme aiming to have at least three candidates submitted for approval in 2021. Commercial developers are typically reluctant to discuss development costs of individual products, so this call for funding is interesting as it puts a figure of sorts of what level of investment might be required.

Back in 2008, when avian H5N1flu was the pandemic of the moment, Glaxosmithkline said it had spent $2bn developing a vaccine. Establishing manufacturing is likely to be a very big part of this cost estimate, something that the Cepi figures seem to support.

Developing vaccines against both avian and swine H1N1 flu was also a costly global preoccupation EvaluatePharma Vision*estimates that $745m was spent on trials of the various candidates that entered the clinic. This estimate only includes studies that were listed on clinicaltrials.gov, so the real number could be higher still.

The table below singles out some of the more costly products that actually made it to market;several other programmes were abandoned before reaching regulators. And not all are still available: Arepanrix has been withdrawn owing to lack of demandafter governments cancelled large orders as the threat of swine flu receded.

Total estimated trial cost ($m)*

Since 2007 Glaxosmithkline has split out what it spends on vaccine R&D, and it is notable that this investment ticked higher in the late-2000s,both in real terms and as a proportion of total R&D spend,when much of its work into the avian and swine flu products would have been going on.

For the current pandemic the UK pharma giant has pledged to contribute its adjuvant platform technology to Cepiand other developers working on coronavirus;a deal is in place with Chinas Clovis Biopharmaceuticals, for example.

The length of time that traditional vaccines take to develop means that many are hoping that alternative technologies will respond more quickly. Not that Glaxo hung around with its pandemic work: the company put its first H5N1 candidate into the clinic in early 2016, and this became available a little over 12 months later.

The furore over Curevac, which was reportedly offered $1bn by the US president, Donald Trump, for exclusive access to any successful vaccine, shows that progress at these companies is being monitoredclosely, at all levels.

Big hopes rest with Moderna and its RNA-based approach, which according to reports will be moving into the clinic today. With luck,early immunogenicity data could emerge in the summer.

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On the hunt for a Covid-19 vaccine - Vantage