Did Michigan dodge the winter holiday coronavirus surge? – MLive.com

January 18, 2021

Its not yet clear if Michigans recent plateau in COVID-19 cases will lead to further decline in virus spread or another increase as testing and reporting routines return to normal following the winter holiday season.

But what is clear is Michigan avoided a significant and immediate surge linked to holiday celebrations.

We dodged anything that was sudden and fierce like we saw in other states, said Dr. Emily Toth Martin, an epidemiologist and associate professor at the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

One of the really challenging things around the holidays is testing habits change and reporting cadence changes so we have to wait for it to stabilize a little bit and to have the data backfill a little bit. But we havent seen the explosion, so thats good news.

Michigan started the week of Christmas averaging 3,631 COVID-19 cases and 111 deaths per day. The positive test rate was at 13%, and hospitals were caring for 3,175 patients with confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19.

By Friday, Jan. 15, those averages were down to 2,461 cases and 81 deaths per day, Michigan was averaging a positive test rate of 8.8%, and hospitals were treating 2,222 such patients.

Throughout the holidays, the state health department had several days where it didnt report coronavirus data. Additionally, daily testing dropped off between Dec. 19 and Jan. 6, making it more difficult to rely on the data.

Much of that data can be backfilled, with the exception of testing. As daily testing totals begin to climb back toward pre-holiday totals, infectious disease experts are able to better understand the spread of coronavirus in the community.

You cant replace tests that werent performed but thats where we tend to watch test positivity, Martin said. With it fluctuating as much the last few weeks, its still an open question where were going.

If a resident was exposed to coronavirus during a New Years Day gathering, they would likely have already been ill within the first week or two, Martin explained. Sometimes, it takes longer to see the domino effect of those individuals infecting others.

Factors that may have contributed to the avoidance of a major surge might have had to do with the proactive restrictions put in place prior to and throughout the holiday season, Martin said.

Michigans state health department tightened its gathering restrictions in mid-November and kept them in place through December, which ran along the same timeline as the decrease in new daily coronavirus cases.

I think people are also definitely getting used to the importance of masking indoors and of other mitigation indoors, she said. Im entirely speculating, but people might be coming in with higher levels of caution.

While dodging a surge is good news, Martin said its important not to lose sight of the fact that coronavirus is still active in the community.

Weve leveled out but we need to get the water line lower, she said. Its nice to see things plateauing but these numbers are so high, they would have terrified me in the fall. Theres still a lot of disease in the community and were not that far removed from the time when our hospitals were in trouble.

Back in September, if you would have told Martin that positive test rates were going to be consistently above 10%, she wouldnt have believed you. Yet thats where Michigan was regularly from Nov. 2 through Dec. 15.

On Thursday, the positivity rate was 6.33% -- the lowest since Oct. 24.

The epidemiologist said she wouldnt be surprised to see cases and positive rates rise again in the coming weeks as college students return to campuses and many K-12 students return to face-to-face learning.

Any time you have that much movement you run the risk of surging and forming hot spots, she said.

To find a testing site near you, check out the states online test finder, here, send an email to COVID19@michigan.gov, or call 888-535-6136 between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. on weekdays.

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