COVID Levels in Bay Area Wastewater Are Now as High as the Winter Peak – KQED

Levels of COVID-19 in the Bay Areas wastewater are continuing to rise and now, those numbers are as high as they were during the last winter surge of infections.

Data from Stanford Universitys WastewaterSCAN project, which monitors the presence of COVID-19 and other viruses in human sewage across the U.S., indicates that COVID-19 levels are still on the rise across 48% of the sites monitored around the Bay Area.

WastewaterSCANs Amanda Bidwell told KQED by email that COVID-19 has been detected in 100% of Bay Area sewage samples theyve collected over the last three weeks. (If you have COVID-19, the virus will show up in your feces soon after youre infected.)

Keep reading for what to know about this rise in Bay Area COVID-19 levels, or jump straight to:

The Bay Areas own COVID-19 wastewater levels are higher than where they were this time last year and on average as high as we saw during the winter peak earlier this year, said WastewaterSCANs Bidwell.

In the last weeks, the Stanford team has observed a particularly pronounced rise in San Franciscos wastewater. Back on June 4, Bidwell told KQED that we are seeing some [of the] highest concentrations weve ever measured at the Oceanside SF and Southeast SF wastewater sites.

The San Francisco Department of Public Health told KQED in a June 11 email that its difficult to determine an exact cause of why COVID-19 detections have increased locally, noting that it can be the result of various factors, including waning immunity, the increase in travel and gatherings associated with the summer season, and the emergence of new subvariants.

The agency also pointed to the seasonal behavior of the virus in previous years, notably the increase in COVID-19 activity around late spring to late summer, followed by another increase during the winter.

Nationally, COVID-19 wastewater levels have kept rising across the country, and levels of the virus are currently classified as High on WastewaterSCANs dashboard of all its sites around the United States, due to what Bidwell called an upward trend.

You can check the COVID-19 levels in your own countys wastewater according to WastewaterSCANs monitoring:

San Francisco | Alameda | San Mateo | Santa Clara | Contra Costa | Solano | Marin | Sonoma |Napa

In 2023, late June is when we started to see a summer increase, said WastewaterSCANs Bidwell but this 2024 swell started several weeks earlier than that.

Its undoubtedly become harder in 2024 to materially track COVID-19 levels in a certain area. As of May 1, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) no longer requires hospitals nationwide to report the number of patients admitted with COVID-19. This had been one of the remaining indicators of rising COVID-19 levels in an area, along with PCR tests. Now, health officials must rely on a combination of wastewater data and hospital deaths of patients with COVID-19.

According to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), the states seven-day test positivity rate the average percentage of people each week who get a positive diagnostic test result from a lab after taking a PCR test has kept rising since April 27 (from 1.9% to 10.6%, with the last available data from July 1).

However, since this data doesnt include at-home antigen testing, it doesnt represent the full picture of COVID-19 positivity around the state.

Of course, its hard to use wastewater to tell you how many people that represents, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), of the recent observed rise in sewage. But nevertheless, the trend is important.

As for why the Bay Area could now be seeing a summer rise in COVID-19 wastewater levels over a month earlier than it did in 2023, Chin-Hong said a big factor is our collective waning immunity against the virus.

One year ago, last year, many more people had gotten additional vaccines, he said. They had additional immunity that was more recent.

But in 2024, we only have about 22% or so of Americans vaccinated nationally, Chin-Hong said. In California, only 14.9% of people statewide are up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccines. So if someone hasnt been infected with COVID-19 recently and they havent gotten the latest vaccine, theyre left extra-vulnerable to rising COVID-19 levels in their community.

You might hear about new COVID-19 variants informally called FLiRT: KP.1.1, KP.2 and KP.3.

These latest omicron descendants, nicknamed for the letters used for their mutations, have risen in prominence recently around the country, overtakingthe previous leading variant, JN.1 the one that was ruling the roost for a lot of the winter and spring, Chin-Hong said. Now, KP.3 has become the most dominant strain nationwide.

In the Bay Area, WastewaterSCANs Bidwell said that KP.2 is still the dominant variant in the three Bay Area wastewater sites where the Stanford team sequenced this data on specific variants.

The new variants matter because each new one brought increased transmissibility during the pandemic. This means that although much of the general population will not get particularly sick with these new COVID-19 variants when they become dominant, there will still be higher-risk groups that will get seriously ill, Chin-Hong said.

Maybe thats the fact of life, but my point is: It shouldnt be the fact of life because we have so many tools to reduce COVID-19 spread and treat infectious people, Chin-Hong said.

The CDC has also stated that based on current data, there are no indicators that KP.2 would cause more severe illness than other strains.

As for the reformulated seasonal COVID-19 vaccine, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommended on June 5 that the new, updated COVID-19 vaccine that will be offered in the fall should in fact be based on the JN.1 variant.

During a rise in COVID-19 levels locally, this might include bringing a well-fitting N95 mask along to indoor spaces that you know could be crowded, like the grocery store or BART during rush hour. Or, if youre hosting people indoors in your home, ensure the space has good ventilation by taking measures like opening windows. If the weather allows, you might also consider favoring outdoor hangouts and meetups with friends and family at this current time.

And if youre at higher risk for serious illness or hospitalization from COVID-19, its an especially good idea to take extra precautions against the virus during a rise in COVID-19 locally. These groups can include older people, immunocompromised and disabled folks.

It also includes people who arent up-to-date on their COVID-19 vaccines, so if you havent already gotten the latest vaccine, you can still find a free COVID-19 shot near you. Remember, people 65 and older are also eligible for an extra COVID-19 vaccine dose.

One more reason you might consider being extra cautious about COVID-19 right now is if youve got upcoming travel plans. Even if your symptoms are mild, a COVID-19 infection can require isolation from other people for well over a week. And you can double that timeline if you get a rebound (i.e., second) infection, which is surprisingly common even in people who dont take the antiviral treatment Paxlovid.

Know the 2024 symptoms of COVID-19

Chin-Hong confirms that there dont appear to be any surprising wild card symptoms expected for a COVID-19 infection in 2024, either for JN.1 or the FLiRT variants. Rather, they seem to largely be the same COVID-19 symptoms youre used to hearing about from previous variants.

According to the CDC, possible symptoms of COVID-19 include, but arent limited to, fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, fatigue, muscle or body aches, headache, new loss of taste or smell, sore throat and congestion or runny nose.

They can also include gastrointestinal symptoms like nausea, vomiting and diarrhea, which Chin-Hong told the New York Times can often confuse people experiencing them, who initially assume they have a condition like norovirus rather than COVID-19.

Find a reliable test (and keep testing)

Incubation periods for COVID-19 the time between exposure and testing positive have shortened during the pandemic. It went from a five-day average in 2020 to as soon as a few days in 2024. So, if youre having symptoms even two days after an exposure, it makes sense to test.

But if your first test is negative, you should absolutely test again in the next 48 hours if symptoms persist and again after that if youre still negative. Its been suggested that COVID-19 symptoms can start much earlier in 2024. This is due to the average immune system being more primed to detect and react to a COVID-19 infection as we navigate the fifth year of this pandemic.

So dont assume a negative result means you dont actually have COVID-19: If youre feeling sick, play it safe, stay home as much as you can and wear a well-fitted mask if you cant. Also, be sure to take another antigen test soon. You could also seek out a more sensitive PCR test.

Remember, if youve been stockpiling COVID-19 tests in the last year, make sure the one youre using hasnt expired. And if it has, you can still check the list of manufacturers whove had their test expiration dates extended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

If you have health insurance, you can still request reimbursement from your health insurer for up to eight at-home tests per month. You can also read more about how to find free COVID-19 tests near you.

In March, the CDC officially revised their national COVID-19 isolation guidance, saying that COVID-positive people could now return to work or regular activities once symptoms are improving overall and theyve been fever-free for at least 24 hours without use of a fever-reducing medication.

The CDCs new guidelines now mostly resembleCalifornias own updated COVID-19 isolation recommendations, which the state revised back in January. Read more about current isolation guidance for COVID-19.

If youve been infected, consider asking your health provider for the COVID-19 medication Paxlovid, an antiviral treatment in pill form that is still available free by prescription in California. Read more on requesting a prescription for Paxlovid, with or without health insurance.

At KQED News, we know that it can sometimes be hard to track down the answers to navigate life in the Bay Area in 2024. Weve published clear, practical explainers and guides about COVID, but also how to cope with intense winter weather and how to exercise your right to protest safely.

So tell us: What do you need to know more about when it comes to COVID or anything else? Tell us, and you could see your question answered online or on social media. What you submit will make our reporting stronger, and help us decide what to cover here on our site, and on KQED Public Radio, too.

Earlier versions of this story were originally published on June 12, June 5 and May 23.

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COVID Levels in Bay Area Wastewater Are Now as High as the Winter Peak - KQED