Understanding the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on well-being – World Bank

Note: The curves for Years of Life Lost (YLL), Future Poverty Years (FPY), and Current Poverty Years (CPY) (in years per 100 people) are smoothed based on fitted values from separate locally weighted polynomial regressions. In each regression, the natural logarithm of GNI PC (2020 US$, Atlas Method) is the independent variable, while YLL, FPY, or CPY is the dependent variable. A bandwidth of 0.75 is used in all regressions.

When aggregating the total well-being costs from the pandemic, we need to consider the value of a year of life lost relative to an additional year of life spent in poverty, which we call . We dont choose a specific value for as reasonable views on this valuation differ. Instead, we present results for a range of plausible valuations of =1, 4, and 10 as well as country-specific values that were calibrated from a specified utility function.

Regardless of the specific valuation chosen in our range, (Table 1). Regarding regional differences, countries in the (see paper for details).

= 1 (YLL per 100)

= 4 (YLL per 100)

= 10 (YLL per 100)

country-specific (YLL per 100)

LICs

18.7

5.3

2.7

13.6

LMICs

18.3

5.8

3.2

9.2

UMICs

17.2

7.2

5.2

8.1

HICs

7.4

3.0

2.1

2.6

World

14.7

5.1

3.2

7.7

Note: Total well-being loss is measured as YLL+(CPY+FPY)/, where the normative parameter captures the number of years lived in poverty deemed to yield the same well-being loss as one year of life lost.

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Understanding the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on well-being - World Bank