I hope that doesnt happen: 1,000 daily coronavirus infections modeled by Oregon – OregonLive

The coronavirus stronghold on Oregon could persist at current record-setting case counts or potentially surge to 1,000 new infections a day before the Fourth of July, according to state modeling released Friday.

Oregons top epidemiologist said hes as anxious as hes ever been since the pandemic hit here four months ago.

Thats because the states trajectory suggests many more Oregonians will soon become infected, with the potential to once again overwhelm contact tracers needed to contain spread of the highly communicable virus.

It would be very difficult for us to contain with the same level of attention that wed like to as we open up, Dr. Dean Sidelinger said of 1,000 new cases a day.

So I hope that doesnt happen.

The new modeling paints a dramatically different picture than the forecast of two weeks ago, which used data from before Gov. Kate Brown allowed most Oregon counties to reopen. Officials now say there is clear evidence that transmission has increased since May 15.

Oregons bleak new forecast was one factor that went into Browns last-minute decision late Thursday to block Multnomah County from reopening and to prevent several others from moving into a second phase. Those decisions will be revisited next week, and theres a clear desire to allow Oregons most populous county to reopen in some capacity, if safe.

The forecast comes as Oregons identified infections continue setting daily highs and the number of residents sick enough to be hospitalized rises for the first time in months. Officials earlier this week said it was too early to draw conclusions about the upward trends but conceded by Friday that they were worrisome and warranted pausing reopenings.

Sidelinger, Oregons epidemiologist and health officer, said he recalled being particularly anxious in March when infections first started growing amid limited testing and scarce personal protective equipment.

He was similarly anxious about a month ago, when identified infections again spiked just before counties looked to reopen.

I remain the same way now as we see cases go up, he said.

But Sidelinger said he remains grounded because increasing infections were always anticipated upon reopening, future hospitalizations arent expected to rise as sharply as infections and Oregonians already slowed coronavirus once.

I remain hopeful that we will continue to come together like that, and we will be able to flatten this curve, he said.

Oregons modeling has long shown that Browns stay-at-home order in March reduced cases by 70% of what they could have been, preventing tens of thousands of infections. That forecasting has been regularly updated for planning purposes but officials are now more pessimistic about maintaining such reductions.

The new report used data through June 5, when identified infections were trending up but before they regularly started surpassing 100 a day.

This forecast from June 12 outlines different infection levels.

The best-case scenario outlined Friday seems almost implausible based on whats transpired since then. Its based on a 60% reduction in cases since May 15, assuming rising infections identified earlier this month were an anomaly.

It indicates that roughly 19,000 Oregonians may have been infected by June 5, with only about one-quarter of those actually identified in the official tallies reported by the Oregon Health Authority.

In that scenario, infections would continue to rise slowly, hitting more than 21,000 early next month. Actual infections per day would be about 100 by July 3 a remarkably optimistic number considering Oregon is regularly identifying far more right now.

In a second scenario, based on a 55% reduction in cases, cumulative infections would rise from 20,000 today to about 25,000 early next month. That assumes infections and hospitalizations identified earlier this month were part of a trend.

Under that scenario, daily infections would reach 270 by July 3. That too may be optimistic.

The third scenario and most pessimistic from the state assumed an even lower reduction in infections, essentially down to 45%.

Cumulative cases would jump from about 20,000 now to 35,000 early next month, a huge increase. Daily infections by July 3 could be 1,000 under that scenario.

Sidelinger said officials continue to regularly monitor data while reviewing reopening options weekly so that we can reverse course, I hope, before we get there.

They will continue to advocate for physical distancing and may need to ask Oregonians to voluntarily limit gathering sizes or put more controls on industries or sectors where outbreaks are occurring, Sidelinger said.

Everythings on the table for discussion, he said. Thats why we continue to monitor. Because it would be very hard to handle 1,000 cases a day. And do timely investigation and contact tracing on all of those cases.

Asked whether that could mean the potential to reinstate stay-at-home orders, Sidelinger said: None of us hope to get there. We know that kind of order is devastating, not only financially but also physically and mentally.

Separate from the modeling, Sidelinger also conceded other troubling indicators that have been appearing in the figures reported daily by the state.

Hospital admissions creeped up to 40 statewide last week, an increase of more than 50% from the preceding week. People dont generally require hospitalization until two to three weeks after becoming infected suggesting some people may have been infected at the same time Oregons daily infection numbers showed a rapid decline.

Given that identified infections are now increasing, does that suggest hospitalizations might be high in a few more weeks?

Im definitely concerned that could be a possibility, Sidelinger said.

But he sounded a hopeful note, saying Oregon and officials across the country are seeing a lower need for hospitalizations among workers and younger people who are now being identified with infections.

As we see this large spike, I dont think that were necessarily going to see the same magnitude of increase in the hospitalization, he said.

While maintaining the need to proceed cautiously, Sidelinger also noted pragmatically that Oregons most populous county would not stay closed indefinitely.

Officials will keep close tabs on the data to determine if Multnomah County can safely move forward with reopening as soon as next week.

I dont imagine a future where the rest of the state all has some level of reopening and Multnomah County stays in baseline, behind, he said.

That could mean Multnomah County eventually is cleared for a first phase of reopening or perhaps certain sectors get a green light while others wait, he said.

Officials will also closely monitor statewide hospital admissions, analyze whether infections can be traced back to known sources and watch the ability of public health officials to respond to multiple large outbreaks.

We want to be in a place where we look at the data and can safely move forward, Sidelinger said of continued reopening efforts in Multnomah and elsewhere. Whether thats next week or a week later, I dont know.

-- Brad Schmidt; bschmidt@oregonian.com; 503-294-7628; @_brad_schmidt

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I hope that doesnt happen: 1,000 daily coronavirus infections modeled by Oregon - OregonLive