Engineers work on a potential vaccine for the coronavirus at a Beijing lab. Nicolas Asfouri/AFP via Getty Images hide caption
Engineers work on a potential vaccine for the coronavirus at a Beijing lab.
Most health experts agree that the need for a vaccine to prevent COVID-19 is clear.
"To return to a semblance of previous normality, the development of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines is an absolute necessity" is how a perspective in Science magazine puts it.
So it's hardly surprising that, around the world, anticipation is high. With more than 100 coronavirus vaccines under development, researchers are reasonably confident that at least one will be successful. Skeptics, and there are some, remind us that optimism about an AIDS vaccine was once high, and 40 years later there is no vaccine.
Still, even if experts today are right that a vaccine for COVID-19 will be easier to develop than an AIDS vaccine, estimates for when it will be widely available vary. Here are some of the vaccine-related questions being raised and what we know at this point.
Is the timeline for COVID-19 faster than for previous vaccines?
President Trump has offered perhaps the most optimistic estimate. He said he expects the United States to have a vaccine by the end of 2020.
So far, it does seem as though the vaccine will be developed faster than ever before in vaccine history. It took more than two decades to come up with a successful polio vaccine. Federal health officials suggest a COVID-19 vaccine may be ready in a tenth of that time.
But there are only some things that you can fast-track, and others, not so much. And even though the Food and Drug Administration is going to be evaluating the various stages of testing with great speed in this case, certain standards must be met: First, you have to prove that a vaccine is safe. Then you need to prove that it generates the immune response you want. And then you need to find out if it actually prevents people from getting sick if they're exposed to the virus.
How would researchers know they have developed a vaccine that works?
Vaccine studies present researchers with a conundrum: You want people to be exposed to the disease being targeted because you need to know if your vaccine is working, and yet in another sense you don't want them being exposed because you don't want them to get sick.
The way you know that the vaccine is effective is that you give a vaccine to one group of people and another group gets a sham injection that doesn't contain the vaccine being tested. Then you see if the vaccinated group is protected.
So how are they going to get exposed to, in this case, the novel coronavirus? Well, if there's a lot of virus circulating in the population, that's one way.
Another possibility that people have talked about is intentionally infecting volunteers with the virus and then seeing if a candidate vaccine prevents them from getting sick. That way you know for sure that the volunteer testers have been exposed and can be confident the vaccine works if that person does not get sick. Such studies, known as challenge trials, are ethically fraught, since you are deliberately infecting volunteers with a potentially lethal virus for which there is no cure.
The alternative to challenge trials is to vaccinate enough people so that you can be confident that some fraction of them will be exposed to the virus. The number you need to vaccinate depends on how prevalent the coronavirus is in the area where the vaccine is being tested. You then compare the vaccinated group with another group that received a sham vaccine to look for efficacy.
Once a vaccine has been developed, how does the manufacturing process work?
"The requirement to scale up to the kinds of numbers we're talking about within the short time-frame that we're speaking about would be an extraordinary effort," says Emilio Emini, who has been working on vaccines for decades and now leads the HIV program at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (which is a funder of NPR and of this blog).
Making billions of doses of vaccine is a herculean task.
The tools that you need for manufacturing one vary considerably depending on the kind of vaccine you're making, but in many cases, you need something called a bioreactor a giant tank that allows the organisms that are actually spewing out the vaccine of interest to grow.
Sometimes you could be talking about a 20,000-gallon bioreactor, and you're not going to go down to your local hardware store and pick one of those up. So that's one issue. There's specialty equipment that has to be made.
In addition to the big stuff, there are smaller things to take into consideration, such as medical-grade glass.
"You have to put a product into a sterile vial or syringe, and there's only so much of that glass to go around," says Fred Porter, senior vice president for technical operations at Adrenas Therapeutics. "If we're thinking about billions of doses to be able to deliver vaccines around the world, that becomes a significant bottleneck."
Is making a vaccine available globally important?
Definitely.
Seth Berkley, CEO of an organization called Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, believes you can't roll out a vaccine one country at a time.
"We're not going to be safe as a world unless everywhere is safe," he says. "So even if we had parts of the world that would have low spread or no spread, if you had large reservoirs of the virus in other places, of course you have a risk of reintroduction."
With more than 100 vaccines in development around the world, is it safe to say the majority of them are never going to become viable candidates?
Yes.
They may not succeed for a variety of reasons. They may not work, or they work but are too hard to manufacture. At this stage of development, many are expected to fail. That's just the nature of vaccine trials.
Is it possible that we don't get just one vaccine but that multiple vaccines are developed that might work even in somewhat different ways?
It seems likely because there are multiple approaches to making vaccines that have advantages and disadvantages. Some are tried and true and have worked for other viral illnesses. Some you can make much faster, but it's unclear that they'll be as effective. Experts such as Emilio Emini believe the parallel development of multiple vaccines is a good thing.
"It's my perspective that this is going to require more than one successful vaccine," he says. "It's going to require at least several, if not more, that are successfully developed in parallel so that the scope of what will be needed can be satisfied."
Will the coronavirus vaccine be like the annual flu vaccine in that it changes every year because the virus changes every year, or will it be more like the measles or the polio vaccine, which is fixed?
Unfortunately, right now the answer is unclear. There is some indication that this virus doesn't change very rapidly, so if you find a vaccine that works against it, it may work in perpetuity. But researchers also don't know how long immunity to this virus lasts, so we may need to get booster shots not a different shot every year but a booster of the same shot to make the vaccine actually work for multiple years.
How hopeful should we be that there will be a vaccine that works and that we can get our hands on by next year?
Several companies, governments and foundations are betting billions of dollars that it will be possible.
Paul Stoffels, chief scientific officer for Johnson & Johnson, says he's optimistic because of his company's recent experience making vaccines for other viral diseases.
"We have done it with Zika, RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), Ebola," he says. "We know what we do. And if we plug a new virus into that system, we are pretty sure we can get to a vaccine."
That said, vaccine people will tell you that every time you start working on a vaccine for a new virus, you don't know what the hurdles will be. There's a lot of work that needs to be done before we know for sure whether those bets will pay off.
Read more here:
Coronavirus Vaccine FAQs: How Is It Being Developed? When Will It Be Ready? : Goats and Soda - NPR
- The Health Department website was attacked in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Defining Coronavirus Symptoms: From Mild To Moderate To Severe : Goats and Soda - NPR [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- What Are the Symptoms of a Coronavirus Infection? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Hotels Were Rolling Out Tools to Help Calm Travelers. Then Coronavirus Hit. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- The Coronavirus, by the Numbers - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Opinion: Early Coronavirus Testing Failures Will Cost Lives - NPR [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Cases Surge in U.S. and Europe - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Two Emergency Room Doctors Are in Critical Condition With Coronavirus - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Coronavirus: Over 1000 Cases Now In U.S., And 'It's Going To Get Worse,' Fauci Says - NPR [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- China Spins Tale That the U.S. Army Started the Coronavirus Epidemic - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Everything to Know About the Coronavirus in the United States - The Cut [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Coronavirus closed this school. The kids have special needs: 'You can't Netflix them all day.' - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- How Long Can The Coronavirus Live On Surfaces? : Shots - Health News - NPR [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Cost to Businesses and Workers: It Has All Gone to Hell - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- In the U.S., More Than 300 Coronavirus Cases Are Confirmed - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- How Jair Bolsonaro's Son, Eduardo, Confirmed His Father's Positive Coronavirus Test to Fox News, Then Lied About It - The Intercept [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- De Blasio Resisted on Coronavirus. Then Aides Said Theyd Quit. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Trump Is Tested for Coronavirus, and Experts Ask: What Took So Long? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Live Coronavirus Updates and Coverage - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Threatens Americans With Underlying Conditions - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Capitalism and How to Beat It - The Intercept [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- An essential reading guide to understand the coronavirus - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- N.Y.C.s Economy Could be Ravaged by Coronavirus Outbreak - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- 'A ticking time bomb': Scientists worry about coronavirus spread in Africa - Science Magazine [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- How coronavirus is affecting the restaurant business, in one chart - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Map: How To Track Coronavirus Spread Across The Globe - Forbes [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Testing Website Goes Live and Quickly Hits Capacity - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Map: How Many Cases Of Coronavirus Are There In Each US State? : Shots - Health News - NPR [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- Live Coronavirus Updates and Coverage Globally - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 16th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 16th, 2020]
- This Is How the Coronavirus Will Destroy the Economy - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Every Star and Public Figure Diagnosed with COVID-19: A Running List - The Daily Beast [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Coronavirus: What you need to know - Fox News [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Travel updates: which countries have coronavirus restrictions and FCO warnings in place? - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Staff angered as Charter prohibits working from home despite spread of coronavirus - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- If coronavirus scares you, read this to take control over your health anxiety - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- San Francisco and Bay Area will shelter in place to slow coronavirus spread - The Verge [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Coronavirus spreading fastest in UK in London - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Businesses Face a New Coronavirus Threat: Shrinking Access to Credit - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Welcome to Marriage During the Coronavirus - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Sweeping restrictions take effect in coronavirus response as health officials warn US is at a tipping point - CNN [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- How Long Will the Coronavirus Outbreak and Shutdown Last? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- 201920 coronavirus pandemic - Wikipedia [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Coronavirus - World Health Organization [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- What Is Coronavirus? | HowStuffWorks [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Coronavirus | CISA [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Is there a cure for the new coronavirus? - Livescience.com [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Shelter in Place: Some Residents in Bay Area Ordered to Stay Home - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Tracking the Impact of the Coronavirus on the U.S. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- 8 Things Parents Should Know About The Coronavirus: Life Kit - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Spain, on Lockdown, Weighs Liberties Against Containing Coronavirus - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- New Yorks Nightlife Shuttered to Curb Coronavirus - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- How best to fight the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Heres whos most at risk from the novel coronavirus - The Verge [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Closing Down the Schools Over Coronavirus - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- The U.S. Economy Cant Withstand the Coronavirus by Itself - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- U.S. Lags in Coronavirus Testing After Slow Response to Outbreak - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- U.K. Steps Up Coronavirus Prevention, But Its Hospitals Have Already Been Strained - NPR [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Coronavirus panic is clearing out grocery stores; heres how workers are handling it - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Tracking the Coronavirus: How Crowded Asian Cities Tackled an Epidemic - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Treatment: Hundreds of Scientists Scramble to Find One - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What's the secret to its success? - Science Magazine [Last Updated On: March 17th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 17th, 2020]
- Facebook was marking legitimate news articles about the coronavirus as spam due to a software bug - The Verge [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- The Single Most Important Lesson From the 1918 Influenza - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- How to Protect Older People From the Coronavirus - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Is Killing Iranians. So Are Trump's Brutal Sanctions. - The Intercept [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Is there a cure for coronavirus? Why Covid-19 is so hard to treat - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Coronavirus: The math behind why we need social distancing, starting right now - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Europeans Erect Borders Against Coronavirus, but the Enemy Is Already Within - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Some of the last people on earth to hear about the coronavirus pandemic are going to be told on live TV - CNN [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Why the US is still struggling to test for the coronavirus - The Verge [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- The Coronavirus Is Here to Stay, So What Happens Next? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Coronavirus in the U.S. - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Watch the Footprint of Coronavirus Spread Across Countries - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Coronavirus Briefing: What Happened Today - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 18th, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 18th, 2020]
- Why the Covid-19 coronavirus is worse than the flu, in one chart - Vox.com [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2020]
- Fact-Checking 5 Trump Administration Claims On The Coronavirus Pandemic - NPR [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2020]
- Trump has scoreboard obsession. It hasnt worked with coronavirus - POLITICO [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2020]
- Here's What Is In The 'Families First' Coronavirus Aid Package Trump Approved - NPR [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2020]
- Young Adults Come to Grips With Coronavirus Health Risks - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2020]
- Which Country Has Flattened the Curve for the Coronavirus? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2020] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2020]