What We Don’t Know About the Coronavirus – The New York Times

Many Americans have been living under lockdown for a month or more. Were all getting antsy. The president is talking about a light at the end of the tunnel. People are looking for hope and reasons to plan a return to something anything approximating normalcy. Experts are starting to speculate on what lifting restrictions will look like. Despite the relentless, heroic work of doctors and scientists around the world, theres so much we dont know.

We dont know how many people have been infected with Covid-19.

We dont know the full range of symptoms.

We dont always know why some infections develop into severe disease.

We dont know the full range of risk factors.

We dont know exactly how deadly the disease is.

We dont have answers to more detailed questions about how the virus spreads, including: How many virus particles does it even take to launch an infection? How far does the virus travel in outdoor spaces, or in indoor settings? Have these airborne movements affected the course of the pandemic?

We dont know for sure how this coronavirus first emerged.

We dont know how much China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in that country.

We dont know what percentage of adults are asymptomatic. Or what percentage of children are asymptomatic.

We dont know for certain if the virus will subside as the Northern Hemisphere enters the warmer months of spring and summer, as other viruses do. The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is bullish. Other experts, not so much.

We dont know the strength and duration of immunity. Though people who recover from Covid-19 likely have some degree of immunity for some period of time, the specifics are unknown.

We dont yet know why some whove been diagnosed as fully recovered from the virus have tested positive a second time after leaving quarantine.

We dont know why some recovered patients have low levels of antibodies.

We dont know the long-term health effects of a severe Covid-19 infection. What are the consequences to the lungs of those who survive intensive care?

We dont yet know if any treatments are truly effective. While there are many therapies in trials, there are no clinically proven therapies aside from supportive care.

We dont know for certain if the virus was in the United States before the first documented case.

We dont know when supply chains will strengthen to provide health care workers with enough masks, gowns and face shields to protect them.

In America, we dont know the full extent to which black people are disproportionately suffering. Fewer than a dozen states have published data on the race and ethnic patterns of Covid-19.

We dont know if people will continue to adhere to social distancing guidelines once infections go down.

We dont know when states will be able to test everyone who has symptoms.

We dont know if the United States could ever deploy the number of tests as many as 22 million per day needed to implement mass testing and quarantining.

We dont know when well be able implement full-scale serological testing.

We dont know if full-scale serological testing will accurately determine immunity.

We dont know if we can implement test and trace contact tracing at scale.

We dont know whether smartphone location tracking could be implemented without destroying our privacy.

We dont know if or when researchers will develop a successful vaccine.

We dont know how many vaccines can be deployed and administered in the first months after a vaccine becomes available.

We dont know how a vaccine will be administered who will get it first?

We dont know if a vaccine will be free or costly.

We dont know if a vaccine will need to be updated every year.

We dont know how, when we do open things up again, we will do it.

We dont know if people will be afraid to gather in crowds.

We dont know if people will be too eager to gather in crowds.

We dont know what socially distanced professional sports will look like.

We dont know what socially distanced workplaces will look like.

We dont know what socially distanced bars and restaurants will look like.

We dont know when schools will reopen.

We dont know what a general election in a pandemic will look like.

We dont know what effects lost school time will have on children.

We dont know if the United Statess current and future government stimulus will stave off an economic collapse.

We dont know whether the economy will bounce back in the form of a v curve

Or whether itll be a long recession.

Or whether itll be a Great Depression.

Or whether itll be a Greater Depression.

We dont know when we might be able to return to a new normal.

We dont know when any of this will end for good.

There is, at present, no plan from the Trump White House on the way forward.

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What We Don't Know About the Coronavirus - The New York Times