Why does Melbourne have so many coronavirus outbreaks? There’s no obvious answer – ABC News

Whenit comes to why Victoria has had more significant coronavirus outbreaks than other parts of Australia, many theories abound.

Could it be Victoria's demographics? Are Melburnians doing the wrong thing? What about the weather?

Despite all the speculationabout what it is about Victoria that has led to its fourth lockdown since the pandemic began, experts say there is no clear answer.

Demographer Liz Allen from the Australian National University said no one state or territory was safe.

"COVID isn't picky about who the virus infects, and this should be a warning to all Australians," she said.

"No-one is safe until the majority of the nation is vaccinated. Luck plays a role, but leadership and public health measures matter too."

Let's unpack it in a bit more detail.

ABC News: Scott Jewell

Some people have wondered whether the COVID-19 outbreaks in Melbourne could be because Victoria has more young and ethnically diverse people, and more casual workers.

But according to the experts, that is wrong, wrong and wrong.

Data simply doesn't support the assertionthat Victoria is at greater risk of COVID-19 outbreaks because of its demography, especially when compared to New South Wales, Dr Allen said.

"Comparing age, population density, crowded housing, migrant composition and transportation, Victoria is no more at risk of COVID than New South Wales," she said.

Victoria's second wave disproportionately affected people in insecure, casual work who would have had no income if they self-isolated or called in sick an issue that has since been addressed with pandemic leave payments.

Some have suggested that Victoria has a higher number of casual workers than other states,thereforegiving the state a higher risk of outbreaksbut data doesn't back that up either.

Victoria does have a largenumber of casual workers, butit also has a largepopulation.

And as a proportion of the population, the amount of casual workers is not too dissimilar to other capital cities.

The simple answer is no.

Leading epidemiologist professor Catherine Bennett said people's behaviour wasnot to blame for the current lockdown.

"It's not that we're out mixing, or our level of compliance with these restrictions and things is any different," she said.

"In fact, if anything, it's better, more protective but it's not enough.

"The message is:'This could happen anywhere. And it really was a matter of time.'"

There's data that backs that up as well.

A panel of experts advising the federal government regularlycalculate each state and territory's transmission potential, or the virus's ability to spread in a population, by looking at data from cases, household surveysand Google.

One of the things they take into account is human behaviour, such as how much people are social distancing or having contact with people outside their household.

According to the federal government's latestweekly snapshot of the COVID-19 situation in Australia, the transmission potential risk in Victoria is lower than in any other state.

Even before the latest outbreak, the virus's ability to spread in Victoria was considered to be lower than in other states.

Cold weather could play some role in COVID-19 transmission, but experts say it may not have been extremely significant in Victoria.

Lower temperaturesimprovethe virus's chance of survival outside the human body, and could also encourage human behaviour that facilitates transmission, like gathering indoors and closing windows.

But experts say that alone cannot be blamed for the number of outbreaks in Victoria.

Burnet Institute's Professor Mike Toole said while all respiratory pathogens thrived in cold weather, that didn't explain the pattern of the spread ofCOVID-19.

"We had a massive outbreak in India, where it's very hot," he said.

"During the northern summer, we had those big outbreaks in the south of the US Arizona, Texas, Florida where it is hot."

He said he did not think anyone hadproven with credible data that cold weather was a factor.

"It is just bad luck," he said.

ABC News: Patrick Rocca

Humans crave certainty.

It's human nature to want to know why something is happening, particularly something difficult like being in lockdown.

We look for answersor someone to blameif something goes wrong.

Professor Bennett said knowing why something happenedgaveus a sense of security.

"I think there's a temptation to do that because it makes us think we're safe in our world," she said.

"But it could happen anywhere."

Her message is simple.

"You don't need a magic virus. You don't need a magic set of things working against you," she said.

"You don't have to be in a southern city or have a young population.

"All those things don't really matter if you've just got people who are quite infectious and mixing."

Even Victoria's infection control expert, Allen Cheng, admits it's difficult to know whether the state is more vulnerable than others.

"I think there is always an element of luck in this," he said.

Experts are hoping Victoria's run of "bad luck"will come to an end soon.

ABC News: John Graham

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Why does Melbourne have so many coronavirus outbreaks? There's no obvious answer - ABC News