6 reasons that Michigans COVID-19 numbers are surging – MLive.com

March 20, 2021

Michigans seven-day average of new COVID-17 cases is going up a steep pace. So is the positivity rate.

Hospitalizations for coronavirus also are beginning to climb.

In fact, coronavirus transmission in Michigan is growing faster than anywhere else in the country.

Pandemic isnt over, Michigan officials warn, as COVID-19 numbers surge

Whats up with that?

Heres a look at the factor cited by experts.

1. Spread of COVID-19 variants.

Perhaps the biggest driver of the increases are the emergence of the new COVID-19 variants, which are more contagious than the dominant strain of coronavirus.

Along with Florida, Michigan has one of the highest numbers of identified cases of the B.1.1.7 strain that first emerged in the United Kingdom. That variant has been identified in 725 cases in 31 Michigan counties.

Just a reminder, this variant is more transmissible, so someone who is infected of COVID-19 will transmit that virus more easily to to others, Dr. Sarah Lyon-Callo, director of the MDHHS Bureau of Epidemiology and Population Health, said in a March 17 press briefing.

2. Easing of restrictions on restaurants, gyms and movie theaters in recent weeks.

Among the 50 states, Michigan had among the lowest transmission rates through January and most of February, and experts say a big reason for that was more restrictions.

Whitmer eased restrictions on gyms and movie theaters in January and allowed restaurants to resume in-person dining on Feb. 1. The coronavirus case numbers and positivity rate started rising about the third week of February.

Lifting of restaurant restrictions typically results in a rise in case rates, concluded a recent by the federal Centers for Disease Control. Thats because coronavirus spreads most easily in indoor settings where people arent wearing masks.

3. Resumption of high school sports and other extracurricular activities.

Lyon-Callo said the number of outbreaks related to schools -- particularly high schools -- has jumped up, but most of that involves extracurricular activities vs. exposure in the classroom.

The classroom environment itself has not been a strong signal for outbreaks, she said. It tends to be more the activities associated with schools, including sports but not only sports.

The states latest report school-related outbreaks listed 53 new clusters in K-12 schools, infecting 253 students and staff. That compares to 17 new clusters infecting 68 people listed in the Feb. 15 report.

4. People are leaving their homes more.

The Michigan Department of Transportation and companies that analyze cellphone data are seeing increases in mobility, Lyon-Callo said.

That data suggests the percentage of time people are spending at home has decreased, and mobility is now near pre-pandemic levels, she said.

.That is showing return towards baseline mobility patterns, particularly for non-essential visits, Lyon-Callo said.

5. Lack of testing.

Lyon-Callo and other public-health official continue to express concern that more people arent getting tested for coronavirus.

We have plateaued in terms of the number of diagnostic tests performed in the state each day, Lyon-Callo said. Its important that we increase our testing rate, particularly as cases are increasing. Thats important for public health response, in terms of ensuring that we identify cases so we can conduct contact tracing and understand where outbreaks are occurring.

6. COVID fatigue.

Another major factor is COVID fatigue, said Dr. Liam Sullivan, an infectious disease specialist for Spectrum Health in Grand Rapids.

I think people are just really, really tired of COVID-19 right now, and theyre especially tired of the COVID-related guidelines and restrictions, Sullivan said. Theres a segment of the population whos saying, I dont care any more and others who are just not paying as much attention to what theyre doing, intentional or unintentional.

If you have this combination of people who stop taking the proper precautions and these variants circulating that are clearly more contagious, that is a recipe for another surge in infections, Sullivan added.

The good news, Lyon-Callo and others say, is that case increases are concentrated for now among those age 50 and younger.

Those who are 10 to 19 have the highest case rate, and their case rate is increasing faster than that of other age groups, she said.

Thats significant because younger people are much, much more likely to have mild cases of coronavirus, she said. Its also significant that cases are not increasing among those age 70 and older, a group much more at risk of hospitalization or death if they catch the virus.

Were delighted to see that (case rates among senior citizens) are not increasing, and that I think shows a positive impact of the vaccination efforts, Lyon-Callo said.

More than 60% of Michigan residents age 65 and older have gotten at least one dose of COVID vaccine.

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